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Artigos-->[Química Net] Digest Number 159 -- 28/07/2002 - 22:06 (Cristiana de Barcellos Passinato)	Siga o Autor	Destaque este autor	Envie	Outros Textos
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~--> Will You Find True Love? Will You Meet the One? Free Love Reading by phone! http://us.click.yahoo.com/7dY7FD/R_ZEAA/Ey.GAA/cEYolB/TM ---------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Para obter mais informações sobre o grupo Química Net, visite: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/quimicanet Enviar mensagens: quimicanet@yahoogroups.com Sair da lista: quimicanet-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------ There are 6 messages in this issue. Topics in this digest: 1. Re: [Química Net] Digest Number 150 From: "cusca castilho" 2. Obrigada Bia From: "crispassinato" 3. ENC: [dreamlista] * Truque do dia * From: "Crispassinato" 4. ENC: Harvard Ph.D. Dr. Geist on Emotional Reactions in a Bear Market - Entrar on line no site do grupo e ver via Web ou entrar no site para visualizar melhor! From: "Crispassinato" 5. Maria Limeira Esse eu fiz agorinha, e lembrei do que vc falou... From: "Crispassinato" 6. ENC: Where Are The Markets Headed? Here Is the Answer From: "Crispassinato" ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ Message: 1 Date: Sat, 20 Jul 2002 22:21:45 +0000 From: "cusca castilho" Subject: Re: [Química Net] Digest Number 150 MANIAS MANIA É COISA QUE A GENTE TEM E NÃO SABE POR QUE DENTRE AS MANIAS QUE EU TENHO, UMA É GOSTAR DE VOCÊ. MANIA DE QUERER BEM, ÀS VÊZES DE FALAR MAL MANIA DE NÃO DORMIR, ANTES DE LER O JORNAL DE CONTAR SEMPRE AUMENTADO TUDO O QUE FAZ OU QUE VÊ DE GUARDAR FÓSFORO USADO, DENTRO DA CAIXA OUTRA VÊZ EU TENHO MUITAS MANIAS DELAS NÃO FAÇO SEGREDO QUEM PODE VER TINTA FRESCA, SEM ANTES PASSAR O DEDO DE SEMPRE ENTRAR NO CHUVEIRO, CANTANDO A MESMA CANÇÃO DE SÓ LEMBRAR DO CINZEIRO, DEPOIS DA CINZA NO CHÃO EU TENHO MUITAS MANIAS, DELAS NÃO FAÇO SEGREDO DENTRE AS MANIAS QUE EU TENHO, UMA É GOSTAR DE VOCÊ. >From: quimicanet@yahoogroups.com >Reply-To: quimicanet@yahoogroups.com >To: quimicanet@yahoogroups.com >Subject: [Química Net] Digest Number 150 >Date: 20 Jul 2002 06:25:45 -0000 > > >Para obter mais informações sobre o grupo Química Net, visite: > >http://groups.yahoo.com/group/quimicanet > >Enviar mensagens: quimicanet@yahoogroups.com > >Sair da lista: quimicanet-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com > > >------------------------------------------------------------------------ > >There are 6 messages in this issue. > >Topics in this digest: > > 1. Uma Breve Lembrança - Depoimento Crônica e Pensamentos de uma >Aprendiz de Poeta > From: "Crispassinato" > 2. Boletins Diarios Quimicanet! > From: "Crispassinato" > 3. ENC: *Sonhos e Palavras* ENC: Mar de Poesias - Publicaçao >Cris Passinato > From: "Crispassinato" > 4. ENC: [dreamlista] Animais da semana - Extinção > From: "Crispassinato" > 5. ENC: [dreamlista] Mudanças no Yahoo - Boucing. > From: "Crispassinato" > 6. ENC: Textos Didáticos sobre Filosofia.htm > From: "Crispassinato" > > >________________________________________________________________________ >________________________________________________________________________ > >Message: 1 > Date: Fri, 19 Jul 2002 03:00:22 -0300 > From: "Crispassinato" >Subject: Uma Breve Lembrança - Depoimento Crônica e Pensamentos de uma >Aprendiz de Poeta > > > Uma Breve Lembrança > Cris Passinato > Julho / 2002 > Rio de Janeiro > > Engraçada essa sensação que sinto que meu passado ainda não passou e que >ele vive a cada suspiro, e cada música, canto de minha casa, sala, quarto, >cozinha. > São mesclados sonhos, cheiros, gostos, sons, sentimentos de saudosismo >que >parece pieguisse, mas é a mais profunda melancolia de ver o que se >transformou o meu mundo. > Meu mundinho que não passa das paredes de meu quarto. > Ele foi se estreitando, se delimitando, pois não cabe mais tanta coisa. > Muitos livros, CD´s, uma parafernalha de computação e eletrônicos, >enfim, >tanta tecnologia e nostalgia, que me fazem chorar de saudade dos meus >tempos >de gravador de mão e da vitrolinha que tocava com o auto-falante o >disquinho >de vinil single das Patotinhas patinando na capa e vendo a Eliana ainda >adolescente com cara de menina boba e não aquela apresentadora que parece >uma Barbie, que também surgiu nessa época e foi sensação, sim porque antes >dessa, eu tive várias Susis, alguém se lembra? > Li outro dia um e-mail sobre lembrar de determinadas coisas, e com as >fotos, nossa foi um chororô desgramado... > Isso porque vocês não podem nem imaginar, vocês não tem a menor noção de >minhas brincadeiras na escola, e os problemas que atravessava de adaptação >e >dos colegas me entenderem... > Eu peguei do bambolê, elástico, io-iô da coca-cola, aquelas coleções de >garrafinhas de coca pequeninas, estava lançando a Sprite, meu Deus, como o >tempo passou. Gostava muito do Genius, tinha pavor de uma mão verde do >Hulk, >alguém se lembra dele? E um gancho vermelho. > E os jogos da Grow? > Nossa, aqueles play mobil e casinhas de madeira que montava e fazia uma >cidade, porque ainda não havia chegado o Lego na minha época. > Enfim, bebia no intervalo, no Recreio mesmo das aulas, um Ola Ola, sabe >aquela mistura de todos os refrigerantes de máquina juntos e um misto ou >cheese-burguer... > Jesus amado, como o tempo voa, ainda ontem eu saia para as festas de 15 >anos. > Ainda ontem, eu dei o primeiro beijo que odiei... > Ainda ontem, passei no vestibular, e não é que até hoje estou lá na >faculdade presa no passado que queria que passasse, mas esse teima em não >sair de minha vida. > Meu Jesus, olha aqui a minha coleção de papéis de carta! > Não, não é a do computador não, é aquela das pastas e pastas e as >figurinhas, olha? > Figurinhas de álbum Sarah Key, uma espécie de Ane Geddes da época só que >de desenhinhos bonitinhos, tipo fofolete, sabe? > E o Amar É... Aqueles bonequinhos peladinhos com frases lindas de amor, >que nem auto-colantes eram, que engraçado lembrar disso? > Meninos, e quando começaram a fazer xerox? Foi um advento para mim >comparado na época ao computador, sabe... Porque peguei o mimiógrafo e os >carbonos de mamãe me sujavam toda a mão e os jornaizinhos da quinta série, >eu rodei nele, no mimiógrafo da mamãe e bati na minha olivete portátil, >super moderna, que nem elétrica era. > Tinha que rir mesmo, eu nem sabia que iria fazer tudo assim num >instrumento que depois de tudo corrigidinho, e olha que nem sempre sai >perfeitinho, agente imprime, não é legal? > Pois é... > Delícia não é? > Pois então, com um passado tão doce, o que eu me prepararia no futuro? > Enganaram-me que tudo ia ser lindo, que eu ia dar certo e que tudo ia >ser >florido e lindo em meus lindos e sorridentes dias. > Esqueceram-se de me mostrar e preparar pra esse mundo cão, que me engole >na primeira mordida para as grades de meu quarto que me prende nesse >passado que não me faz cair no chão... > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > [Crispassinato] (gentileza de *Marcinha* do papel de carta de fundo) > > > >[This message contained attachments] > > > >________________________________________________________________________ >________________________________________________________________________ > >Message: 2 > Date: Fri, 19 Jul 2002 03:48:02 -0300 > From: "Crispassinato" >Subject: Boletins Diarios Quimicanet! > >A Partir de Hj, os boletins diarios do Quimicanet estarao publicados no >www.usinadeletras.com.br >Em meu nome, como autora, entao, qq duvida ou querendo alguem procurar ou >resgatar alguma msg ou texto, alem das fontes e do site do yahoo, ainda >teremos esse site de fonte... >Grata >Bjinhos a todos >Cristiana Passinato >Fundadora e Moderadora! > > > >________________________________________________________________________ >________________________________________________________________________ > >Message: 3 > Date: Fri, 19 Jul 2002 05:14:34 -0300 > From: "Crispassinato" >Subject: ENC: *Sonhos e Palavras* ENC: Mar de Poesias - Publicaçao Cris >Passinato > > > > > > > > > > Email > Senha > > Não é cadastrado? > Esqueceu sua senha? > > > > > > > > > todo o site poetas poesias > > > > > > > > Mar de Poesias > Oceano de Poesias > Mar de Trocas > > > > > > > > > Quais dos temas abaixo você sugere para o >próximo concurso do Mar de Poesias? > > Amizade > Natureza > Paz > Saudade > > > > > > > > > Hospedado por > Central de Domínio > > > > > > > > > Poetas ConsagradosPoetas do Mar Ondas de >Poesia (por e-mail) Poesia da Semana > > > > > > > > > Lista por ordem alfabética: > > a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v >w >x y z > > > > Cristiana de Barcellos Passinato - Cris Passinato > > > Olá, Meu nome é Cristiana de Barcellos Passinato, >mais conhecida virtual e em meu meio acadêmico como Cris, ou Cris >Passinato. >Bem, eu nasci dia 23 de dezembro de 1973, na casa de Saúde São José, no >bairro de Botafogo, na Zona Sul da Cidade do Rio de Janeiro. Meus pais >moravam perto de meus avós no Bairro de Lins de Vasconcelos, na Zona Norte >da cidade, que naquela época eram nobres ainda, perto do Méier, Vila Isabel >e Tijuca. Mas lembro mesmo do casarão, sobrado e grande quintal da casa de >meus avós maternos. Meus avós paternos e tios, são descendentes de >italianos, e minha avó inclusive é imigrante que veio bebê para o Brasil, >mas eles moravam distantes, no Sul do País, em Loanda, uma cidadezinha de >barro vermelho no chão, do Paraná, onde meu pai foi criado, mas na >realidade >como meu avô era da Marinha Mercante e viajava muito, tinham filhos em cada >parte do País. Meu pai, por exemplo, ele e sua irmã gêmea, nasceram em >Concórdia, SC< a terra da Sadia, para ser mais específica. Minha mãe, >carioca da gema, e meus avós engenheiro e a minha avó professora, >dscendentes de portugueses e de uma linhagem dita mais nobre, sendo que >isso >não importa para mim em nada, mas enfim, há que dê valor a árvores >genealógicas, sangue, genética, sobrenomes, essa coisa toda. Fomos logo nos >mudando e me lembro do apartamento da Urca com mais nitidez, aliás, bairro >que amei morar, antes de ir para São Conrado, Ilha do Governador, Campo >Grande, voltar para Sao Conrado, ir para a Barra da Tijuca e finalmente vir >parar nesse paraíso bucólico, dizem até ser uma espécie de "roça" pouco >urbanizada, onde tudo é quieto e todos andam de bicicleta, até altas horas >da madrugada. Aqui ainda têm, procissões de Igreja e quermécies, mas isso é >outro papo... Bem, voltando a minha vidinha quase boa. Nesses percursos, >estudei em vários colégios e a minha formação pode ser mais bem visualizada >em http://www.crispassinatocurriculo.hpg.com.br e >http://www.aulasparticularesdequimica.hpg.com.br. Tenho, 28 anos, pretendo >me formar como professora de Química ano que vem pela UERJ e sou Técnica em >Química formada pela Escola Técnica Federal de Química. Os detalhes, >pode-se >recorrer a meu e-mail, e meus sites, e onde publico minhas poesias, que uma >boa busca em sites tipo, cade, yahoo, google, enfim, podem fornecer mais >detalhes... Pelo meu e-mail fornecerei com todo prazer mais informações e >esses créditos a quem quer que seja, e que esteja interessado realmente em >me conhecer melhor para saber um pouco mais de quem escreve os textos aqui >apresentados. Obrigada Voltem sempre e leiam meus textos que serão sempre >inseridos nesses espaço, tão nobre. Bjinhos Cris Passinato ICQ 44500248 > > > Índice das poesias: > > Lua : Verdadeiro Sol da Meia Noite > > Nosso Louco Amor > > Uma Breve Lembrança > > Menina Moleca > > Sorria Corrigido autoria no Suigeneris Portal >Nacional > > Meu Passado > > Pensamento > > Mãe > > Bruxa > > Eu sou uma... > > Primaveras > > Dueto Enígma - Cris Passinato e Celito Medeiros > > Desbloqueando a Criança > > > > > > home - poesias - canais - notícias - fale conosco > > > >Há quem diga que todas as noites são de sonhos. >Mas há também quem diga nem todas, só as de verão. >Mas no fundo isso não tem muita importância. >O que interessa mesmo não são as noites em si, >são os sonhos.Sonhos que o homem sonha sempre. >Em todos os lugares, em todas as épocas do ano, >dormindo ou acordado. > >Trecho da peça :Sonhos de Uma noite de Verão >de William Shakespeare > > >Owner: Fatima Dannemann > >Moderadores: Maysa Magalhães, Deolinda Santos, Carla Cristina Dias e >Ezequiel Mendes Pereira (Zaque) > >Apoio Especial: Lori Nascimento > >Sonhador Especial: Arnaldo > >Homenageado da semana: Maurilio > >Para enviar mensagem: sonhos-palavras@egroups.com >para cancelar: sonhos-palavras-unsubscribe@egroups.com >reclamações: sonhos-palavras-moderator@egroups.com > >Seu uso do Yahoo! Grupos é sujeito aos Termos do Serviço Yahoo!. > > > >[This message contained attachments] > > > >________________________________________________________________________ >________________________________________________________________________ > >Message: 4 > Date: Fri, 19 Jul 2002 13:41:35 -0300 > From: "Crispassinato" >Subject: ENC: [dreamlista] Animais da semana - Extinção > > >-----Mensagem original----- >De: Deolinda Pimentel dos Santos [mailto:deopsantos@vnet.com.br] >Enviada em: sexta-feira, 19 de julho de 2002 13:36 >Para: dreamlista@yahoogrupos.com.br >Assunto: Res: [dreamlista] Animais da semana - Extinção > > > Como bióloga só tenho a lamentar esses tristes acontecimentos. > Deo > > -------Mensagem original------- > > De: dreamlista@yahoogrupos.com.br > Data: sexta-feira, 19 de julho de 2002 02:20:42 > Para: Undisclosed-Recipient@toole.uol.com.br > Assunto: [dreamlista] Animais da semana - Extinção > > > > IBAMA DISSOLVE COMITÊ PARA RECUPERAÇÃO DA ARARINHA-AZUL - É >com >muita tristeza que comunicamos a EXTINÇÃO NA NATUREZA da Ararinha Azul. O >último exemplar selvagem conhecido dessa espécie e que habitava a região de >Curaçá, no sertão da Bahia, desapareceu em outubro de 2000. Além disso, o >Ibama decidiu dissolver o Comitê para Recuperação da Ararinha-Azul >(Cyanopsitta spixii), criado em 1990 com o objetivo de estabelecer >estratégias de recuperação da espécie, uma das mais ameaçadas de extinção >do >mundo. > Saiba mais... > > > Ararinha Azul - - A Ararinha Azul vivia no extremo norte da >Bahia ao sul do Rio São Francisco, na Caatinga, onde ocorrem caraibeiras, >pinhões e faveleiras (plantas que ela utilizava). De hábitos sociais >selvagens pouco conhecidos, faz seus ninhos em caraibeiras (Tabebuia >caraiba), substituídos em cativeiro pelos ninhos de madeira. > Saiba mais... > > > Animais ameaçados de Extinção - De acordo com o IBAMA, a >exploração desordenada tem levado a fauna brasileira a um processo de >extinção de espécies intenso, seja pelo avanço da fronteira agrícola, seja >pela caça esportiva, de subsistência ou com fins econômicos, como a venda >de >peles e animais vivos. Este processo vem crescendo nas últimas duas >décadas, >à medida que a população cresce e os índices de pobreza aumentam. O Brasil >possui 208 espécies na Lista Oficial de animais ameaçados de extinção e dez >novas espécies serão adicionadas em breve. > Saiba mais... > > > Criar animais silvestres em cativeiro. Pois bem, você decidiu >ter um animal silvestre como animal de estimação ou companhia. A decisão >foi >sua, porém saiba que ter um animal silvestre em casa requer >responsabilidade, respeito as características comportamentais do bicho, >cuidados sanitários e respeito as leis. > Saiba mais... > > > > > > > voe conosco e explore todos os limites dos seus sonhos > > Para cancelar sua assinatura deste grupo, envie um e-mail para: > dreamlista-unsubscribe@yahoogrupos.com.br > > Owner: Rubens Dog > Moderadoras: Fatima Dannemann e Deo Santos > > > Seu uso do Yahoo! Grupos é sujeito aos Termos do Serviço Yahoo!. > > > > >____________________________________________________ > IncrediMail - O mundo do correio eletrônico finalmente desenvolveu-se - >Clique aqui >voe conosco e explore todos os limites dos seus sonhos > >Para cancelar sua assinatura deste grupo, envie um e-mail para: >dreamlista-unsubscribe@yahoogrupos.com.br > >Owner: Rubens Dog >Moderadoras: Fatima Dannemann e Deo Santos > > >Seu uso do Yahoo! Grupos é sujeito aos Termos do Serviço Yahoo!. > > > >[This message contained attachments] > > > >________________________________________________________________________ >________________________________________________________________________ > >Message: 5 > Date: Fri, 19 Jul 2002 21:42:30 -0300 > From: "Crispassinato" >Subject: ENC: [dreamlista] Mudanças no Yahoo - Boucing. > > >-----Mensagem original----- >De: *Marcinha* >Enviada em: quinta-feira, 18 de julho de 2002 09:23 >Para: "Undisclosed-Recipient:;"@pavuna.terra.com.br >Assunto: [dreamlista] Mudanças no Yahoo - Boucing. > > > > > > > > > > > > Amigos, o Yahoo inventou mais uma!!!!!! > > Não está sendo mais permitido aos moderadores de uma lista, >desativar >o BOUCING de um participante. Isso não só com a nossa, mas com as demais >também. > > Para quem ainda não entendeu direito o que vem a ser o BOUCING, vou >tentar explicar: > > Caso vc esteja com sua caixa postal cheia, depois de um certo número >de mensagens devolvidas, seu endereço irá para esse tal de BOUCING. Com >isso, vc estará fora do grupo que recebe e que pode enviar mensagens à >lista. > > Antes havia uma opção UNBOUCING e diariamente a moderação ia a essa >página e reativava quem estivesse como inativo para o envio/recebimento de >mensagens, porém constando ainda na Lista. Hoje essa opção não existe mais >e >nem com "alguns jeitinhos" que antes se dava, os tais "jeitinhos" deixaram >de existir. > > Cada vez que se reativava, alguns de vcs recebiam mensagem >automática >do Yahoo dizendo que estavam sendo incluídos na lista, quando para vcs, já >estavam.... risos... > > Dentre as mudanças que eles fizeram, agora quem pode reativar a >assinatura, somente poderá ser o próprio assinante e para que isso >aconteça, >eles enviam uma mensagem diretamente ao assinante que chamam de PEDIDO DE >REATIVAÇÃO. > > Já recebi por parte de um de vcs, repasse dessa mensagem e quem me >enviou dizia não saber do que se tratava. O que fiz? Cliquei num endereço >contido no texto do email, uma mensagem seguiu para o Yahoo a a pessoa foi >liberada do BOUCING e voltou como ativo na lista. > > Portanto, caso um de vcs recebam essa mensagem cliquem no endereço >mencionado e enviem a mensagem que será gerada. Se tiverem dúvidas, >mande-a >para mim que farei isso. > > Qualquer dúvida, por favor, contatem a moderação. > > > > > > >voe conosco e explore todos os limites dos seus sonhos > >Para cancelar sua assinatura deste grupo, envie um e-mail para: >dreamlista-unsubscribe@yahoogrupos.com.br > >Owner: Rubens Dog >Moderadoras: Fatima Dannemann e Deo Santos > > >Seu uso do Yahoo! Grupos é sujeito aos Termos do Serviço Yahoo!. > > > >[This message contained attachments] > > > >________________________________________________________________________ >________________________________________________________________________ > >Message: 6 > Date: Fri, 19 Jul 2002 22:57:46 -0300 > From: "Crispassinato" >Subject: ENC: Textos Didáticos sobre Filosofia.htm > > >-----Mensagem original----- >De: Sylvio Ferreira >Enviada em: sexta-feira, 19 de julho de 2002 22:20 >Assunto: Textos Didáticos sobre Filosofia.htm > > > -------Mensagem original------- > De: Aureci Figueiredo Martins > Data: Sexta-feira, 19 de Julho de 2002 09:57:44 > Assunto: Textos Didáticos sobre Filosofia.htm > > Caros Amigos. > Para quem gosta de FILOSOFIA, recomendo a leitura dos textos >didáticos >de Sílvio Seno Chibeni, Prof. da UNICAMP, nos sites: > > http://www.unicamp.br/~chibeni/ (Textos filosóficos) > > http://www.dca.fee.unicamp.br/~bgrusso/ (Espiritismo e Ciência) > > Abaixo a HOME PAGE do primeiro site acima: > Textos Didáticos > 1. Introdução à filosofia: > > 2. Filosofia: Noções introdutórias > > 3. Epistemologia: Noções introdutórias > > 4. Lógica e argumentação: > > 5. Notas sobre tipos de argumentos > > 6. Notas sobre lógica: O condicional > > 7. História da filosofia: > > 8. Material sobre Locke > > 9. Resumo da parte III do Tratado da Natureza Humana de D. >Hume >(versão provisória) > > 10. Resumo da Investigação sobre o Entendimento Humano de D. Hume >(versão provisória) > > 11. Filosofia da ciência: > > 12. O que é ciência? (Word 2000) > > 13. Observações sobre as relações entre a ciência e a filosofia >(Word 2000) > > 14. Epistemologia da física: > > Ø Características conceituais básicas da física clássica. (Word >2000) > > Ø O surgimento da física quântica. (Word 2000) > > Ø Uma breve introdução ao problema da medida em mecânica >quântica.(Word 2000) > > Ø Algumas noções sobre o formalismo quântico.(Word 2000) > > Ø A interpretação da mecânica quântica (Revista Com Ciência, >SBPC/Labjor, maio/2001.) > > > Caso não queira mais receber mensagens minhas clique em REMOVER > Vivemos numa democracia e você tem o direito de escolha, pelo menos >de >minha parte. > > Abraços, > Sylvio Ferreira > sylviorj@brhs.com.br > http://www.terravista.pt/FerNoronha/3517 (VOTO FACULTATIVO) > > >____________________________________________________ > IncrediMail - O mundo do correio eletrônico finalmente desenvolveu-se - >Clique aqui > > >[This message contained attachments] > > > >________________________________________________________________________ >________________________________________________________________________ > > > >Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/ _________________________________________________________________ Converse com seus amigos online, faça o download grátis do MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com.br ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ Message: 2 Date: Sun, 28 Jul 2002 01:40:39 -0000 From: "crispassinato" Subject: Obrigada Bia Legal, obrigada, Bia! Adorei sua msg... Mas se puder, procure algo tb de nossa área para contribuir, pode ser do tipo que estou poestando, e nos estamos todos recebendo diariamente o resumo só, assim é mais fácil, leve e objetivo para quem trabalha, estuda e não tem tempo para msgs como as que costumo enviar. Ou seja, o que vc enviar, será postado ao grupo, armazenado e assim sendo resumido em forma de texto em um só e-mail diário, a noite. E eles todos estão também disponíveis on line, publicados em www.usinadeletras.com.br; Eu tenho tentado em portais de UNIVERSIDADES, mailing lists de educação e ciência. Além de estar lendo e assistindo em TV sobre vários tópicos, e o que acho interessante, eu coloco para o grupo, que apesar de não se manifestar no próprio grupo, vez por outra me remete algo em pvt (private = e-mail particular: crispassinato@infolink.com.br) Espero que ajude tb a nossa pequena comunidade de amigos na Química. Bjinhos Cristiana Passinato... ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ Message: 3 Date: Sun, 28 Jul 2002 04:37:19 -0300 From: "Crispassinato" Subject: ENC: [dreamlista] * Truque do dia * Truques e Dicas de Softwares por e-mail -----Mensagem original----- De: Celle Enviada em: sábado, 27 de julho de 2002 14:16 Para: Dream Lista Assunto: [dreamlista] * Truque do dia * Truque do dia 1.11. Proteção contra vírus de computador Todos nós, usuários de computador, temos que nos preocupar com os vírus de computador. Não tem outro jeito. Todos os dias surgem novos vírus e os programas anti-vírus são obrigatórios, principalmente nos computadores com acesso à Internet. Um computador pode ser infectado por um vírus simplesmente ao acessar um site na Internet. Na maioria desses casos os programas anti-vírus detectam o vírus e orientam o usuário adequadamente. Entretanto, o e-mail tem sido o meio de disseminação de vírus preferido. É difícil encontrar quem não tenha tido o computador contaminado por um vírus de e-mail. O Nimda, por exemplo, chegou a computadores do mundo todo e ainda causa problemas para muita gente. Neste Truque do dia contaremos de dois softwares cada vez mais usados para proteger os computadores e que podem ser úteis para todos vocês: o AVG AntiVirus e o MailWasher. As informações abaixo são simples e, claro, não ensinam tudo sobre os softwares. Quem quiser usá-los terá que gastar um tempo explorando-os para tirar o máximo proveito deles. Mas, creiam, vale à pena. AVG 6.0 Anti-Virus System O AVG é um programa anti-vírus fabricado por uma empresa chamada Grisoft. O programa é gratuito, está na versão 6.0, portanto não é um programa novo que ainda pode falhar deixando o computador desguarnecido. A empresa libera atualizações com freqüência que também são gratuitas. Um recurso interessante do AVG é que o programa, ao analisar e-mails recebidos e enviados, acrescenta-lhes algumas linhas de texto informando que eles foram analisados pelo programa e não foram detectados vírus. Assim, o usuário do computador pode ter certeza que seus e-mails foram examinados pelo AVG. Para fazer o download do AVG 6.0 visite o site da Grisoft, http://www.grisoft.com, e siga as instruções. A instalação do programa é simples e as atualizações também. MailWasher 1.33 O MailWasher é um programa para quem usa softwares de e-mail como Outlook Express, Outlook, Netscape, Eudora e Pegasus. Isto é, para pessoas que gravam os e-mails recebidos em seus computadores. Usuários de Hotmail e webmail não são atendidos pelo MailWasher. O MailWasher verifica os e-mails recebidos nos servidores e traz para o seu computador somente alguns dados básicos deles como remetente, assunto e data de envio. E-mails que potencialmente podem conter vírus são assinalados pelo programa e marcados para exclusão. Note que tudo isso ocorre sem que o e-mail seja gravado no seu computador: o MailWasher somente traz dados dos servidores de e-mail, não os próprios e-mails. O MailWasher também é gratuito, funciona sob Windows 95, 98, ME, NT, 2000 e XP, exige 4 Mbytes de memória RAM e 4 Mbytes de espaço em disco, ou seja, quase nada. Ao concluir a instalação, o programa permite que você importe os dados de todas as contas de e-mail que tem no seu computador e ele próprio identifica qual é o seu programa de e-mail padrão. Para fazer o download do MailWasher visite o site http://www.mailwasher.net e siga as instruções. Leia também as informações que aparecem no link "Learn how to start using MailWasher". Tem muita coisa útil nessa página. O Truque do dia ensina truques e dicas de Windows, Windows Explorer, Internet Explorer, Outlook Express e Office (Access, Excel, Outlook, PowerPoint e Word). Para receber o Truque do dia gratuitamente inscreva-se somente aqui. Todos os Truques do dia enviados anteriormente estão aqui. Para ser removido da lista de distribuição do Truque do dia, clique aqui e preencha o formulário. www.truquesedicas.com.br --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.380 / Virus Database: 213 - Release Date: 24/07/2002 voe conosco e explore todos os limites dos seus sonhos Para cancelar sua assinatura deste grupo, envie um e-mail para: dreamlista-unsubscribe@yahoogrupos.com.br Owner: Rubens Dog Moderadoras: Fatima Dannemann e Deo Santos Seu uso do Yahoo! Grupos é sujeito aos Termos do Serviço Yahoo!. [This message contained attachments] ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ Message: 4 Date: Sun, 28 Jul 2002 04:38:06 -0300 From: "Crispassinato" Subject: ENC: Harvard Ph.D. Dr. Geist on Emotional Reactions in a Bear Market - Entrar on line no site do grupo e ver via Web ou entrar no site para visualizar melhor! -----Mensagem original----- De: bounce-otcjournal-1125452@lyris.otcjournal.com [mailto:bounce-otcjournal-1125452@lyris.otcjournal.com] Enviada em: sábado, 27 de julho de 2002 13:29 Para: crispassinato@infolink.com.br Assunto: Harvard Ph.D. Dr. Geist on Emotional Reactions in a Bear Market If you are reading this message in plaintext or if you have an AOL address you must click on this link: http://listserv.otcjournal.com/otcjournal/20020727-1.html and wait for a web page to automatically open up to properly read this newsletter. July 27, 2002 Volume V, Issue 57 Email : info@otcjournal.com URL : http://www.otcjournal.com To OTC Journal Members: Dr. Richard Geist, Harvard Ph.D. in Psychology on the Psychological Stresses of the Worst Bear Market in History This weekend s edition is a must read for all stock market investors. Dr. Richard Geist, considered to be today s foremost authority on the psychology of investing, has written an article exclusively for members of the OTC Journal on the psychological aspects of dealing with the worst Bear Market in history. Dr. Richard Geist has a Ph.D. in psychology from Harvard. He has published numerous works on the psychology of investing, is a frequent guest on CNN, CNBC, Bloomberg, and all the major television networks devoted to the stock market. He is often quoted in major publication including the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Barron s, and Forbes. Dr. Geist publishes his own newsletter entitled Strategic Investing. He is a long time devotee of small and microcap stocks, and is an avid investor. He suffers the same psychological stress we all have felt in this environment. As you read this article, we are certain you will recognize many of the same feelings and emotions we have all felt during the past 19 months as investors have watched their stock market wealth get decimated. There are also some concrete suggestions for renewing your enthusiasm. This edition is a must read for all investors. EMOTIONAL REACTIONS IN A BEAR MARKET Dr. Richard Geist The markets have been spiraling downward for eight straight weeks. As we write, for the year the Dow is down 24.22%, the S&P 500 is down 32.04%, the Nasdaq is down 38.17%, and the Russell is down $27.33%. All indices have now dropped below the September 21, 2001 lows. In fact, the S&P is now 38% undervalued, a level which in the past has lured bargain hunters into buying beaten down stocks. Investors either remain on the sidelines or are raising cash to preserve what s left of retirement accounts in advance of a perceived final capitulation. Reinforcing this behavior is the unusual fact that stocks typically lead us out of a recession while the economy follows in its wake. Currently, however, the economy is perking up--growing at what appears will be a 3% rate this year--while stocks continue to plunge lower. It is all too easy to point to external reasons for a failed market recovery: fears of terrorism, the inability of Israel and Palestine to come to the peace table, low earnings visibility, and accounting scams and mistrust in corporate America. In addition to external factors, however, which are usually short-term phenomena, it may be helpful to look at some of the internal, psychological factors that are inhibiting investors’ return to the market. For as Charlie Munger once said, “...not enough attention is given to the lollapalooza effects coming from combinations of psychological tendencies.” Hence here are some psychological factors contributing to the market’s continued declines and investor malaise. A Waning Sense of Hope The motivation for all investing is realistic hope. Whether on the long side or the short side, investors must possess a strong, reality-based feeling that the market will validate their stock picking judgments. Realistic hope, as Ernest Schachtel once pointed out, “has an activating effect.” In other words it helps mobilize the energy required for any activity. Therefore, hope in the market not only motivates us to actually invest; it also energizes us to think about the possibilities, what we might invest in when the time is right, what conditions might be necessary for the market to change directions, what strategies are best to meet our goals. Even when we suffer a loss in the market and our confidence wanes, if hope remains alive, we will have the capacity to pursue our goals. The mobilization of hope can be damaged greatly by a sense of basic mistrust, characterized by an ongoing feeling of uncertainty and unpredictability. Such emotional states of doubt and randomicity usually follow periods where the predominant feeling has been one of magical hope, “a wishful expectation and anticipation that somehow things will change for the better.” The technology bubble, which was characterized by magical hope, confirmed for many investors that their grandest wishes would be magically fulfilled without any effort on their part. Thus when the bubble collapsed, it became enormously difficult to maintain realistic hope. Investors had no idea what changes would be necessary to renew their faith in the market. As realistic hope waned, we experienced the September 11th tragedy and subsequent Enronitis. The ability to remobilize realistic hope was postponed. Depression and Anxiety Talk to most investors in the market today and you will come away recognizing most folks are feeling either anxious, depressed, or both. Prolonged anxiety and depression inevitably lead to a pervasive pessimism where investors discern a bleak future for the market. Worries about retirement, sending children to college, and a ten-year period where the market goes nowhere are frequently expressed concerns. Anxiety as an emotional state negatively affects the way we think. As I’ve pointed out in the past, there are two major consequences of anxiety. First, it stimulates a change in our thinking processes from one of connecting words and thought by logic to one in which words and thoughts are connected by emotion. You can capture this quality most readily if you imagine the first word that comes into your mind when you think of the word red. For most people, their first association to red is an emotion rather than a dictionary definition of the word such as a color on the spectrum. Red is often associated to excitement, danger, or other heightened emotional states (not to mention the predominant color on our computer screens). When we think in emotions rather than logical connections, we are much more prone to make judgments based on emotional stories in the media, stock message board rumors, and friendly advice from our relatives rather than on any rational understanding of fundamentals. The second consequence of anxiety is that it promotes jigsaw puzzle thinking. This is a thought process where, instead of being able to look at a whole picture, we can only see fragments of the picture, pieces of the puzzle that may or may not be relevant to the whole. For example, Tyco’s CEO Dennis Kozlowski’s resignation and indictment for possible sales tax evasion dominated the headlines recently. Investor talk shows and market-focused television shows were hammering away at management s lack of integrity. While there are indeed several high profile cases of what appear to be blatant dishonesty in corporate America, the whole picture leads to a very different perspective. Most of the public companies are honestly going about their business. The combination of jig saw puzzle thinking and emotional cognition lead us to believe we are in the middle of an Enronitis epidemic that requires we quarantine the market. These thoughts force investors to ignore all the signs of an impending recovery. Even more importantly, the same jigsaw puzzle thinking occurs when making decisions about individual stocks. We spend weeks studying a company s fundamentals, technicals, management, product and services before buying a stock; but when the stock retreats and we feel anxious, we tend to make sell decisions based on one or two variables, often price or volume without regard for the total picture. A Sluggish Sense of Time Time is both an objective and subjective phenomenon. Objectively we define time as the duration of seconds, minutes, hours, days, months, years that can be clocked and measured according to some agreed upon standards. We all know that a week consists of 7 days. However, if you tell your two year old that you ll be gone for a week, he or she will have no conception of the length of your absence because his sense of time is not highly developed. Once you leave, your child may experience the week as eternity, which brings us to subjective time. We all experience time differently, depending on our developmental stage and emotional state. Vacations pass quickly; the work day drags interminably; time occasionally stands still; time passes more slowly for children than for adults. Subjective time can be defined as the distortions of clock time inherent in each of our own psychic lives. When we feel optimistic and hopeful, time passes all too quickly. Recall how you felt during the tech bubble. We could buy over-valued stocks for the long run without giving it a second thought. We’d be rich overnight, even if overnight meant a couple of years. When we feel depressed or despairing, however, time moves very slowly. During a market downturn, there is a pervasive feeling of “in the doldrums forever.” To consider buying stocks during this period with a two-year outlook on the market is next to impossible for many. The combination of depression and lack of hope vitiates our psychological ability to imagine a near term future. As Pascal once said, in this state “...we never live, we only hope to live; and, in awaiting and preparing ourselves for happiness we inevitably never are happy.” When time moves so slowly, and we don’t live, time forces human emotions to move contrary to our economic interests by interfering with long term investing. As long as we experience time as moving so slowly, investors will find it difficult to move money back into the market. Lowered Self Esteem We know that investors use the market to validate and enhance their self-esteem. We feel good about ourselves when we pick stocks and the market confirms our skills and judgment by sending our stocks higher. We feel good about ourselves when we follow others’ recommendations and succeed because we have joined them in a shared sense of power and knowledge--buoyed by a connection with the discoverer of a lucrative investment. We feel good about ourselves when we are part of a group that uses a successful strategy--be it fundamental analysis, technical analysis, momentum investing, short selling, etc. When the market fails to validate our self-esteem, however, we begin to lose both our confidence and our joy in participating. For example, if we’ve followed the recommendation of an admired market guru and his or her recommendation fails to perform, we often feel let down and suspicious. We begin to devalue the guru, advisor, or security analyst. This devaluation of others and the market in general fuels our pessimism while preventing us against mobilizing hope too quickly. In combination with our hopelessness and depression, it is this devaluation that evokes the feeling nothing will get better any time soon. It is in part this devaluation that causes bear markets to continue well below reasonable valuation levels. Complex Adaptive Systems: Why Emotions are so Troubling for the Market At first glance we can argue the above emotional reactions to the market--lowered self esteem, a sluggish sense of time, depression and anxiety, a waning sense of hope--are normal and exist in both bull and bear markets. This is generally true, and such emotional reactions are specifically responsible for many investor mistakes. When we begin to apply them to the market as a whole, they take on a life of their own. Peter Bak, in his book How Nature Works, describes what has come to be called a complex adaptive system. Suppose we have two people in the same room expressing emotion. The dynamics of the interaction will not be particularly interesting unless you’re a psychologist. If we add another dozen people to the room, we now have a group with many interactions that begin to take on a life of their own. Bak would say the individuals in the group now transition to a complex adaptive system. In other words, a group of interactions are more complex than the people who comprise the group. This transition from individual emotion to group is called “self-organized criticality” and is “self organized,” meaning the individual emotions expressed have evolved into a group feeling without input from any outside agent. As Bak states, “The state is established solely because of the dynamic interactions among individual elements of the system: the critical state is self organized.” This means: 1) the resulting group expression is greater than the sum of its parts; and 2) the system is out of balance such that minor events may lead to major changes (called avalanches). The changes that take place can no longer be understood by studying the individual’s emotions because the sum of the emotions have become larger than the sum of their individual expression. The group, or to make a leap to capital markets, the herd is now a complex adaptive system that is out of balance and subject to major changes as a result of the cumulative expression of otherwise minor emotions. Hopelessness, depression, anxiety, a sluggish sense of time, and low self-esteem are no longer separate emotions belonging to individuals. They now combine to form a complex adaptive system that takes on a life of its own. Bak’s analogy to this process is a pile of sand, which, as we continually add individual grains, changes the nature of the sand pile from static grains to a dynamic system in which a small change--adding one more grain of sand, can lead to an avalanche in the pile. As emotions become a complex adaptive system within the herd, very small changes--such as Tyco’s CEO resigning or Intel lowering its revenue projections for a quarter--can have major effects on the market. As Bak put it, “...a thought (in our terms an emotion) may be viewed as a punctuation, i.e. a small or large avalanche triggered by some minor input in the form of an observation or by another thought” (emotion). We are in the midst of many such small avalanches being triggered by world socioeconomic and political events. The usual smooth progression of the market has been punctuated by minor emotions that have taken on a life of their own, complex and unpredictable. It is during these periods that the survival of individual investors depends on understanding how to navigate through these critical states. What is important to understand now is that self organized criticality of emotions is the market’s way of taking a large step over a relatively short period of time while driving from the market those who react rather than anticipate and respond to the new complex adaptive state. The only way to survive this step is to remain in the market, knowing that as a result of the complexity a new and different bull market will be born. If we can anticipate and plan for this new bull market, while avoiding being sucked into one of the avalanches, we will find ourselves in exactly the right place when it resumes. So what do we do now from a practical point of view? The overwhelming majority of investors are feeling anxious, pessimistic, hopeless, and apathetic. These are natural emotions in the face of the worst market conditions since the Great Depression. Remember, the Nasdaq is down over 80% from its high! If you’re not feeling some of these emotions, you’re in complete denial, or you’ve been profiting on the short side. The trick of dealing with these feelings is to allow yourself to experience them without allowing them to determine what you actually do in the market. One caller told me that when she opened her latest brokerage statement, she wanted to sell everything and hold onto the minimal cash that remained. Then she realized that if she acted on those feelings, she would have no way of making up her losses. While you don’t have to make up for losses using the same portfolio of stocks that precipitated the losses, if you’re not in the market you will be likely to miss the first 30%-40% of the new bull market when it arrives. There are a number of activities that will help you cope. First, think back to the things you have done correctly in this market. You may have performed some excellent research and been absolutely correct about your choices, only to be blindsided by the market’s retreat. Because you didn’t sell in a timely manner this doesn’t mean your stock picking skills have disappeared. Second, begin to analyze the mistakes you did make. What was it that caused your failure to sell on time? Did you miss an important clue from an individual company? Were you too carried away with your own magical hope to realize the bull market was coming to an end? The more you can analyze your mistakes, the less likely you are to repeat them. For example, if you realize that you got carried away with magical hope on the upside, chances are you will get carried away with irrational pessimism on the down side; therefore, you should be making a concerted effort to look forward rather than at yesterday’s headlines (e.g. Corporate mistrust is now an old issue and is already discounted in the market). Third, engage your analytic, cognitive processes to begin to think about the market. What would you buy or sell if the market turned around tomorrow? What factors are most likely to influence the market going forward? What strategies work best for you? What sector of the market has the best fit with your personality? Becoming actively engaged in market analysis will re-energize your hope and confidence in yourself without having to act on your plans yet. Fourth, begin discussing the market with a small group of trusted others. Investing in an interpersonal context, where others can challenge your ideas and expand your ways of looking at the market and individual stocks, helps you use emotion to enhance rather than undermine performance. Finally, begin to test out your plans by putting one foot back in the market. Research a couple of stocks and buy a few shares. Beginning to apply your strategies again will re-invigorate your enthusiasm for real life investing. -------------------------------------------------------- Charts Provided Courtesy Of TradePortal.com -------------------------------------------------------- The OTC Journal is a proud partner of the SwingWire.com Online Investment Community. A next generation Online Analyst Exchange providing Members the ability to search, review, track and monitor some of the Internet s best Online CAs (CyberAnalysts). Members have the opportunity to potentially achieve higher returns by viewing top performing portfolios and receiving real-time alerts from favorite CAs. SwingWire.com also has a lucrative incentive model for experienced investors and traders who consistently outperform the market. Share market ideas with other like-minded investors, establish a proven track record, provide insightful commentary, attract followers and ultimately become one of the Internet s highest paid and most sought after CyberAnalysts! Click here to receive your FREE 30-Day Trial Membership with no further obligation. Sign Up Today! Disclaimer The OTCjournal.com Newsletter is an independent electronic publication committed to providing our readers with factual information on selected publicly traded companies. All companies are chosen on the basis of certain financial analysis and other pertinent criteria with a view toward maximizing the upside potential for investors while minimizing the downside risk, whenever possible. Moreover, as detailed below, this publication accepts compensation from certain of the companies which it features. Likewise, this newsletter is owned by MarketByte, LLC. To the degrees enumerated herein, this newsletter should not be regarded as an independent publication. Click Here to view our compensation on every company we have ever covered, or visit the following web address: http://www.otcjournal.com/disclaimer.html for our full profiles and http://www.otcjournal.com/trading-alerts/disclaimer.html for Trading Alerts. All statements and expressions are the sole opinions of the editors and are subject to change without notice. A profile, description, or other mention of a company in the newsletter is neither an offer nor solicitation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. While we believe all sources of information to be factual and reliable, in no way do we represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof, nor the statements made herein. The editor, members of the editor s family, and/or entities with which they are affiliated, are forbidden by company policy to own, buy, sell or otherwise trade stock for their own benefit in the companies who appear in the publication unless specifically disclosed in the newsletter. The profiles, critiques, and other editorial content of the OTCjournal.com may contain forward-looking statements relating to the expected capabilities of the companies mentioned herein. THE READER SHOULD VERIFY ALL CLAIMS AND DO THEIR OWN DUE DILIGENCE BEFORE INVESTING IN ANY SECURITIES MENTIONED. INVESTING IN SECURITIES IS SPECULATIVE AND CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. 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The NASD has published information on how to invest carefully at its web site. -------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe Here -------------------------------------------------------- You can unsubscribe from this list at any time by Clicking Here and HITTING SEND. If you are having difficulty removing yourself or wish to change your address please go to http://listserv.otcjournal.com/opt.cgi?email=crispassinato@infolink.com.br. --- You are currently subscribed to otcjournal as: crispassinato@infolink.com.br To unsubscribe send a blank email to leave-otcjournal-1125452M@lyris.otcjournal.com [This message contained attachments] ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ Message: 5 Date: Sun, 28 Jul 2002 07:20:26 -0300 From: "Crispassinato" Subject: Maria Limeira Esse eu fiz agorinha, e lembrei do que vc falou... Sustentável Leveza do Meu Ser! Cristiana de Barcellos Passinato 28 de julho de 2002. Rio de Janeiro Sou leve. A brisa me leva. Vez por outra me pego Pensando no porquê. Não físico, Mas mentalmente não transfiguro minhas atitudes Em leveza. Meu corpo, Não é leve. Isso tudo para que serve? Para me calar? Para me esconder? Sim, Ponho-me a blefar a todo momento. Mostrando o que, na realidade, nem sou eu. Contradizendo o meu corpo frente a minha psiquê. Porque tenho que sofrer? Ora! Para isso: Essa contradição diária, Põe-me etinerária e etinerante por quilômetros, Em poucos metros em círculo dentro do meu quarto. Vou e volto em um curto trajeto, Repetitivo impulso necessário Para pensar em mudar. Ponho-me a meditar e constatar a necessidade, Que a palavra tem de saltar e mostrar Quem realmente sou. Veio-me a cabeça uma quadra, ao amanhecer desse lindo Domingo: No amanhecer Vem o prazer do criar Para andar e soprar O que pude inventar. (Cristiana de Barcellos Passinato) Um pensamento do momento: Se soubesse que tínhamos que parar, deletar dados que não prestam, passar um "defrag" no HD e poder continuar no mesmo ritmo? Entregava-me a um cientista e trocava meu cérebro por um chip de maior capacidade. (Cristiana de Barcellos Passinato) ********************************************************************* Não quer mais receber e-mails meus? Click aqui e coloque "Cancelamento" no assunto de seu e-mail. Obrigada CristianaPassinato ..* (click e responda-me) ICQ 44500248 www.poesiasdacris.hpg.com.br www.Crispassinato.ubbi.com.br www.crispassinato.blogspot.com http://www.universoteen.com.br/blog/index.htm meu blog está anunciado no Guia acima www.mardepoesias.com.br www.usinadeletras.com.br www.mardepoesias.com.br www.forumpoeticomundial.hpg.com.br www.avbl.com.br (membro efetiva 2002) www.blocosonline.com.br www.palavreiros.hpg.com.br Seja um KaiZen Member Cel: 21 9692-9493 (mande-me um torpedo click e vá direto ao site. Espero vc!) ****************************************************************** ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ Message: 6 Date: Sun, 28 Jul 2002 07:20:58 -0300 From: "Crispassinato" Subject: ENC: Where Are The Markets Headed? Here Is the Answer -----Mensagem original----- De: bounce-smallcapdigest-1620253@lyris.smallcapnetwork.net [mailto:bounce-smallcapdigest-1620253@lyris.smallcapnetwork.net]Em nome de SmallCap Enviada em: domingo, 28 de julho de 2002 06:58 Para: crispassinato@infolink.com.br Assunto: Where Are The Markets Headed? Here Is the Answer If you are reading this message in plaintext or if you have an AOL address you must click on this link: http://www.smallcapnetwork.net/archive/listserv/20020728-1.html and wait for a web page to automatically open up to properly read this newsletter. Dow Jones 8,264.39 +78.08 8:23 pm EST, Sat., July 27, 2002 NASDAQ 1,262.12 +22.04 For info, visit www.smallcapnetwork.net . S & P 500 852.84 +14.15 To be removed, please click here . Russell 2000 382.26 +4.15 VOLUME 02: ISSUE 51 SmallCap Digest Weekend Edition: Where Are The Markets Headed? Here Is the Answer One of Worth Magazine s top 250 financial advisers will be answering any questions readers may have about financial planning or related topics. Questions maybe sent to editor@smallcapnetork.net ** This weekend we have a special edition of the SmallCap Digest. Here is the answer...actually here are four answers to where the markets are headed. The SmallCap Digest asked some of the most respected experts on the stock market to tell us where they think we are headed. As the Chief Executive Officer and Founder of TrendFund.com, Michael J. Parness online guise, Waxie, guides subscribers through bull and bear stock market conditions. A trend-trader, Michael s value lies within seeing future market trends. Responsible for the direction and momentum of the company, his knowledge and unconventional approach have earned him respect within the investment community and acclaim as a financial advisor. Since of April 2000 we have been advising clients to get out of the market as investors and strictly trade. At 4600 we called the Nasdaq to 2500. At 2500 we called it to 1500 and we now call the Nasdaq to 700. At 12,000 on the DOW we called it to 8000. At 8000 we called it to 7000 and now we call it to 5000. So, you ask, WHY? Why will the DOW close one day at 5000 or below and the Nasdaq close at 700 or below? The answer is rather easy. Since most of what we do is based on Market TRENDS and trends are based on human emotion, we simply need to look back throughout history to know that during Bear markets P/E ratios shrink to something around 5 - 10 X s earnings. As humans we never get things exactly right, so we tend to overshoot things both ways. It s why trading the stock market and not investing in it has been so profitable for us at Trendfund.com. One only needs to look around themselves to see that there are still so many companies, particularly techs, that are BUBBLE STOCKS: ebay (EBAY) Electronic Arts (ERTS) Newport Corp (NEWP) Qualcomm (QCOM) Tons of companies are simply overvalued by any historical or otherwise measure. EBAY traders at roughly 17 X s REVENUE. This is absurd and not likely to last. DOW 5000 and Nasdaq 700. Mark it down, it ll happen. Detail There is a growing sense of panic and the markets are experiencing high volume, climactic selling across the board. Virtually every single equity sector and industry are included in this waterfall decline and there are no safe havens, not even gold. This is the very definition of capitulation. It is happening. It s not pretty. It is historic. It will most likely reach a short-term climax at the support levels we have previously defined: Dow 7400-7565 and S&P 776-778. That should happen when most investors least expect it, probably today. As we await the denouement of the parabolic decline, intraday cross currents are becoming stronger and less predictable. We have been seeing premature short covering rallies followed by equally quick sell offs. Today (Wednesday) European bourses are down 3-5% and this should fuel more negativity in US markets, creating what will hopefully be the final wash and rinse day. Buying weakness is not working, so there isn t much for the bulls to do until the bears have eaten their fill. Prepare, but don t anticipate. Remember, the first mouse gets whacked and the second mouse gets the cheese. In whatever time frame you trade, buy the first pullback after you are sure the bounce has started. Don t try to pick the exact bottom. Technicals As we mentioned previously, the 38.2% retracement of the entire Bull Market from 1982 occurs at Dow 7565. That would roughly correspond with our S&P target of 776, which is the 61.8% retracement of the 90 s bull market and a simple 50% decline from the top in March 2000, along with another important fib extension. These levels make ideal near-term targets. We see the present action as the first leg of a 3-part capitulatory process that will last into 2003-4. What kind of long-term targets can we expect? FYI, the 50% retracement of the entire Bull Market takes us to Dow 6267 and the 61.8% retrace would land us at 4971. Those are reasonable targets for the 2nd and 3rd phases of the capitulatory leg and you can bet that pure value investors will have them on their radar. We can expect a number of very tradable mini-bull rallies during that corrective market process, but to really make money during this period investors must learn to short sell or hedge their portfolios with puts, bear funds or in some other similar manner. The SmallCap 600 closed just two points away from its September lows, which is another reason to expect a bounce very soon. Let’s See If We Get A Rally Off Of Oversold And Over-Pessimistic Levels. By Mark Boucher, TradingMarkets.com Click Here for a free trial Wednesday’s huge turnaround rally did occur on big volume And sentiment, the VIX, the TRIN, and a host of oscillators show the market was deeply oversold. However, the usefulness of many of these tools in a major bear market is more doubtful than is normally the case. So the real test will be whether the recent lows will hold and whether we can get some follow-through, breadth, and leadership off of any low that will support at least another bear-market rally that is catchable in distance and duration. So far the jury s far from out, and it looks like a bear rally is all that should be hoped for. What is frightening is how the last minor leg of the bear market took nearly everything down with it. Even most of Asia and Eastern Europe followed the U.S. and European markets lower. Base metals reversed their breakouts of long-term patterns and turned down sharply. Cotton is following the grains in a weather bull market, but Lumber has weakened and bonds have strengthened. None are yet at recession-discounting levels, but the trend is not positive. And the real worry is that if the market now turns lower once more, these economic leading gauges could start to discount recession. Recession from here would present a very bleak outlook. Property and other holdouts would likely face the same delayed-effect fate of stock prices, and stocks would likely continue another big leg lower. Yes we could make money out of such a decline, but bear markets are a lot tougher than bull markets, and there are so many other negative side effects to one s wealth that this is not something to look forward to. But now it is definitely something to watch out for. Breadth indications over the latest week showed total downside dominance. Continue to wait for a 9:1 up/down volume day, the 5 day moving average of advancing volume to be 77% or more of total volume, an 11-day A/D ratio of 1.9 or more, or a 10-day A/D ratio of 2 or more, and a couple good O’Neil Follow Through Days to make for a totally confirmed bull move. But again, don t be surprised to see a couple follow-through days and no further breadth confirmation, leading to a small but barely catchable upmove similar to what we had off of the Sept. lows on any potential rally. David Fried is the editor and publisher of The Buyback Letter, the only investment newsletter devoted to finding opportunities among companies that repurchase their own stock! Mr. Fried has been a featured guest on CNBC’s “Money Club”, “WEVD”’s “Market Wrap” with Bill Bresnan in New York City and many other regional radio broadcasts. He has also been profiled in the New York Times, Los Angeles Times, Barron’s, Bottom Line Personnel, Kiplinger’s Personal Finance, Forbes, Business Week and numerous other publications. When times are uncertain it helps to periodically review the overall economic picture. The “Big Trends” presented below will help you keep a clear head in what always feels like a crazy market. Underneath the market noise are, as always, solid realities that ultimately rule the day no matter what investors’ near-term hopes or fears may be. Big Trend 1: The inflation trend Since 1920, the S&P index has gone up an average of 15.5% when inflation was in the 2%-5% range. When inflation topped 5% the S&P average rose just 1.3% per year. Currently inflation is running well below the 5% mark. The inflation trend remains very positive. Big Trend 2: The long-term bond yield vs. S&P yield Peter Lynch, the famed fund manager of The Magellan Fund during its glory days, uses the following rule of thumb: When yields on long-term government bonds exceed the yield on the S&P 500 by 6% or more, sell stocks and buy bonds. As of June 30, the yield on the S&P 500 was 1.50% while the yield on 30-year government bonds was approximately 5.47%. The difference between the two yields is 4.07%. Yield Indicator: Positive Big Trend 3: Action of the Federal Reserve Bank The Fed lowered interest rates 11 times last year. The Fed has changed its bias to neutral. For a while we have felt that the next move by the Fed would be to raise rather than lower interest rates. However that is no longer a certainty. Fed Indicator: Neutral Big Trend 4: The yield curve Currently the yield curve is positive. As of June 30, the spread between a 1-year Treasury bill and the 10-year bond was 2.70% and the 30-year bond currently yields 5.47%, 3.34% more than the 2.13% yield on the 1-Year Treasury bill. Economists generally feel that an inverted yield curve indicates that an economic slowdown is imminent. The yield curve is in order. Yield Curve Indicator: Positive Big Trend 5: Valuation Recent market declines continue to take the froth out of the high-flying big-cap stocks. The S&P 500 is down about 48% from its peak. Recent price declines in the stock market combined with low interest rates have moved our Valuation indicator from negative to neutral. Buying value in this market remains extremely important. Valuation Indictor: Neutral Big Trend 6: Investor sentiment We add the total bullish percentage readings of Investors Intelligence, Consensus Index, AAII Index and Market Vane, as reported in Barron’s every Sunday, and average this figure for the month. We consider an average reading of over 200 to be negative while readings of under 150 are positive. The average total reading for the five weeks ending June 30 was 127. This reading is the same level as it was for last September, the month of the World Trade Center attacks. We have not had a monthly reading of over 200 since December 2001. Readings over 240 have marked market highs over the past few years while readings of about 130 have marked market bottoms. Sentiment Indicator: Positive Big Trend 7: Earnings Sentiment We track the quarterly positive and negative earnings surprises as reported in Barron’s every week. We feel that positive surprises and revisions are bullish for the market as they indicate that professional analysts have been too negative, while negative revisions indicate that analysts have been too optimistic. During the just-concluded quarter, positive quarterly earnings surprises beat negative surprises 88-37, a ratio of just over 2-to-1. Fiscal year earnings revisions surprises were essentially equal. This indicates that analysts’ current estimates for 2002 earnings are probably about right, meaning there will be an absence of upside surprises to drive the overall market. Earnings Sentiment Indicator: Neutral Summation Commentary Four of our seven indicators are positive (inflation, yield, yield curve and sentiment), while three indicators are neutral (the Fed, valuation and earnings sentiment). Our indicators are telling us that the investment climate is positive at this time. D I S C L A I M E R : The SmallCap Digest is an independent electronic publication committed to providing our readers with factual information on selected publicly traded companies. SmallCap Digest is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. All companies are chosen on the basis of certain financial analysis and other pertinent criteria with a view toward maximizing the upside potential for investors while minimizing the downside risk, whenever possible. Moreover, as detailed below, this publication accepts compensation from third party consultants and/or companies which it features for the publication and circulation of the SmallCap Digest or representation on SmallCapNetwork.net. Likewise, this newsletter is owned by TGR, LLC. To the degrees enumerated herein, this newsletter should not be regarded as an independent publication. Click Here to view our compensation on every company we have ever covered, or visit the following web address: http://www.smallcapdigest.net/compensation_disclosure.html for our full compensation disclosure and http://www.smallcapdigest.net/short_term_alerts.html for Trading Alerts compensation and disclosure. All statements and expressions are the sole opinions of the editors and are subject to change without notice. A profile, description, or other mention of a company in the newsletter is neither an offer nor solicitation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. While we believe all sources of information to be factual and reliable, in no way do we represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof, nor the statements made herein. The editor, members of the editor s family, and/or entities with which the editor is affiliated, are forbidden by company policy to own, buy, sell or otherwise trade stock for their own benefit in the companies who appear in the publication. The profiles, critiques, and other editorial content of the SmallCap Digest and SmallCapNetwork.net may contain forward-looking statements relating to the expected capabilities of the companies mentioned herein. THE READER SHOULD VERIFY ALL CLAIMS AND DO THEIR OWN DUE DILIGENCE BEFORE INVESTING IN ANY SECURITIES MENTIONED. INVESTING IN SECURITIES IS SPECULATIVE AND CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE INFORMATION FOUND IN THIS PROFILE IS PROTECTED BY THE COPYRIGHT LAWS OF THE UNITED STATES AND MAY NOT BE COPIED, OR REPRODUCED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT THE EXPRESSED, WRITTEN CONSENT OF THE EDITORS OF SMALLCAPNETWORK.NET. We encourage our readers to invest carefully and read the investor information available at the web sites of the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") at http://www.sec.gov and/or the National Association of Securities Dealers ("NASD") at http://www.nasd.com . We also strongly recommend that you read the SEC advisory to investors concerning Internet Stock Fraud, which can be found at http://www.sec.gov/consumer/cyberfr.htm . Readers can review all public filings by companies at the SEC s EDGAR page. The NASD has published information on how to invest carefully at its web site. --- You are currently subscribed to smallcapdigest as: crispassinato@infolink.com.br To unsubscribe send a blank email to leave-smallcapdigest-1620253Y@lyris.smallcapnetwork.net [This message contained attachments] ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/

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